ClumsyMonkey.net

Huntingdon, PA





... I enjoyed the urinal post, too.

Watch the last 30 seconds

Rational Choice Theory
-The probability of committing a crime depends on the costs (punishments) and the benefits (potential pleasures) involved in the crime.
-Therefore, criminals are attracted to crimes that provide low risk of punishment and a high payoff with little effort.
-Victims on the other hand try to deter crime by increasing the likelihood that offenders will be detected and apprehended.

Deterrence Theory
-Emphasizes the role of costs (punishments) in explaining crime.
-Therefore, a higher level of punishment should be associated with a lower level of crime.

General Deterrence
-A process by which the punishment of some law violators provides information about the costs of crime to those who have not been punished (the general public), thereby reducing the latter’s (the general public’s) law violations.

Specific Deterrence
-A process by which punishment reduces the law violations of those who have been punished.

Severity
-The harshness or degree of punishment, such as length of incarceration or the amount of a fine.

Certainty of Punishment
-The probability of experiencing punishment, such as the chances of being apprehended, prosecuted, convicted, and sentenced.

Celerity of Punishment
-The swiftness of punishment (i.e. the time interval between committing a law violation and experiencing punishment).

*The central claim to deterrence theory is that law violations are low when severity, certainty and celerity are high*

Is the effect of certainty linear?
-We assume that each increment in punishment yields a steady reduction in law violations.
-However, certainty can be nonlinear
-For example, an increase in the arrest rate from 10 to 25 percent may produce no meaningful decrease in the level of law violations. However, a further increase of 40 percent may produce a substantial decrease in law violations.
-Low probabilities of 1 to 20 percent may be perceived as “little probability of being caught”. Perhaps a 25-30 percent objective level of certainty is needed before people think that being punished is a viable position.
-A “Tipping” Effect: An appreciable level of certainty must be reached before any reduction in crime rate occurs.
Below a certain level, changed in certainty had little effect on crime rates.

-The 3 dimensions of punishment may operate in conjunction.
-For example, the effect of severity of punishment may depend on the certainty of punishment.
-The level of severity may not enter into people’s decision making when the certainty of punishments is trivial.
-Reasonably high levels of certainty may be necessary before people seriously consider the severity of punishment.

Comparative
-Compares the crime rates and levels of punishment in a single jurisdiction over time

Time Series
-Compares the crime rate of jurisdictions with different levels of punishment at a particular time.

Is certainty of severity of punishment more important?
-Evidence indicates that certainty is the more important of the two.
-However, they do tend to be interrelated.
-It was found that states with high severity tend to have low certainty. He speculated that judges and juries are reluctant to find people guilty and incarcerate them when punishment is so severe.
-He also suggested that severity alters the effect of certainty: certainty has the greatest impact when severity if high.

Negative relationship between certainty and crime rate
-When the crime rate is low, police can devote more time to each case, increasing the probability of arrest and conviction.
-On the other hand, when the crime rate is high, police are unable to spend much time on each case, decreasing the probability of arrest and conviction.
-The latter interpretation is often referred to as the “overload” hypothesis.
-This hypothesis was not supported because the relationship can be brought on by other unknown conditions which can affect both crime rates and certainty.

Are the effects of deterrents limited to certain types of crimes?
-Deterrence effects should be expected only for crimes that occur in situations where people have the time and motivation to calculate the rewards and costs of alternative behaviour.
-They differentiated between economic crimes (robbery, burglary, larceny and auto theft), which tend to be committed in circumstances where rewards and costs are calculable.
-And the crimes of violence (assault and homicide), which tend to be committed in emotional states that inhibit thoughtful assessment of consequences.
-Rape falls somewhere between economic and emotional crimes as it is a crime of violence which is frequently planned.
-They examined the correlation between certainty of punishment (measured as the arrest clearance rate) and the crime rate.
-The correlations for the four economic crimes are substantial and negative; the correlation for rape is moderately negative; and the correlations for the two “emotional” crimes are small and insignificant.
-His analyses support the deterrence perspective for robbery but not for homicide.
-Cities with high risk of incarceration exhibit low robbery rates, controlling for socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of cities.

[ctrl] +[v]

NaNoWriMo

January 25, Concert- Moncton Coliseum, Moncton, NB
January 26, Concert- Harbour Station, Saint John, NB
January 28, Concert- Mile One Stadium, St. Johns, NF
January 30, Concert- Metro Centre, Hailfax, NS

(22:45:17) spiritualmonster: and how the crap do they pay for every piano they wreck?

xoNoDoubt69 (11:03:37 PM): http://ipods.freepay.com/?r=8472104
SantaClaus (11:03:38 PM): Hey. It's you again!
Mrs. Claus, the elves and I are sooo busy getting ready for this Christmas but don't take me off your BuddyList! I want you to help us test the new and cool things we are working on for 2005. Type menu then 1 to become one of my Helpers.

Also, I've got new treat for U - a game called, Sudoku. Type menu & try it!

xoNoDoubt69 (11:04:14 PM): but
SantaClaus (11:04:15 PM): Santa sent hundreds of millions of IM's and is on vacation now. Type menu to see what he left here for you.

xoNoDoubt69 (11:04:19 PM): no
SantaClaus (11:04:19 PM): If you don't type main then I won't be able tell you what I have to offer.

xoNoDoubt69 (11:04:32 PM): but u need to help meeeee

SantaClaus (11:04:32 PM): Oh my, this should be a lot easier! You need to relax and let the Christmas sprit flow.

Try typing, menu to start again.

xoNoDoubt69 (11:04:38 PM): WHAT!
SantaClaus (11:04:38 PM): Santa is out of the office for a few months ). Type menu to see what he left here for you.

xoNoDoubt69 (11:04:53 PM): but christmas is in 2 months .. how can he be out of office?!!?!?
SantaClaus (11:04:53 PM): Type menu. Santa is away on vacation.

xoNoDoubt69 (11:05:02 PM): why do u hate me? :*(**
SantaClaus (11:05:02 PM): Santa cannot speak right now. He is away on vacation. Type menu to see what he left here for you.

xoNoDoubt69 (11:05:10 PM): you already said that!!!
SantaClaus (11:05:10 PM): Santa sent hundreds of millions of IM's and is on vacation now. Type menu to see what he left here for you.

xoNoDoubt69 (11:05:19 PM): oh yea! i never got an im!
SantaClaus (11:05:19 PM): Santa is out of the office for a few months ). Type menu to see what he left here for you.

xoNoDoubt69 (11:05:27 PM): you're repeatign yuorself now!!!
SantaClaus (11:05:27 PM): Type menu. Santa is away on vacation.

xoNoDoubt69 (11:05:32 PM): omg i give up on santas
SantaClaus (11:05:32 PM): Santa cannot speak right now. He is away on vacation. Type menu to see what he left here for you.

“International pressure on Syria mounted Tuesday as the United States, France and Britain introduced a Security Council resolution threatening to consider sanctions if the country does not cooperate with a probe into the assassination of former Lebanese Premier Rafik Hariri.

President Bush said he had not ruled out military action if Syria does not comply.”

Now if only such forceful persuasions could be used against others who refuse to adhere to international laws, conventions, and rulings.

“Nuclear power is a turkey. It’s dirty, dangerous, expensive and cannot be built fast enough to meet our energy needs over the next decade,” said Shawn-Patrick Stensil, Greenpeace Energy Campaigner. “The McGuinty government should stick to its word and openly debate all of Ontario’s energy options. They are afraid to do so, because nuclear power would fail the test of public scrutiny.”

<li>

sterilize

(I told you Santa hated you, Melissa!!!!!)

http://www.clumsymonkey.net/phpBB2/files/ow.JPG

Beck

justbepatient

[09:08:53] <PlasticAss> Raine Maida was in Century Hotel (2001) with Mia Kirshner
Mia Kirshner was in Murder in the First (1995) with Kevin Bacon